Markets rebound after sell-off; oil prices fall amid de-escalation in the Middle East

Market Snapshot (Current Session)

Market Sentiment & Technology Sector

Following the deep and painful sell-off at the beginning of the week, investors have regained confidence today, as evidenced by a distinct rebound across U.S. equities. Leading the charge, the Nasdaq 100 index is staging an impressive recovery (+2.17%), reaching the 29,853 level. The broader S&P 500 index is also in the green, rising 0.73% to 7,411.82.

In the IT sector, Salesforce is in the spotlight today. The company's stock has lost over 40% of its value since the start of 2026. Despite this weak streak, the company is taking bold steps, announcing plans to acquire the customer service platform Fin for $3.6 billion, a move investors are trying to price into their valuations. Globally, markets are focused on the upcoming release of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation index—the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of price pressures.

Geopolitics & Global Macro Events

News from the realms of politics and defense is playing a key role in shaping the markets today:

• Lockheed Martin won a massive $35 billion U.S. government contract to increase the production of interceptor systems.
• The United States decided to ease some sanctions on Iran, prompting the country to rapidly try to introduce its accumulated oil reserves, estimated at $8.5 billion, to the markets.
• Tensions in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz have noticeably eased. Marine insurers are lowering massive war risk premiums as the market has priced the risk of a prolonged energy shock as very low.

Commodities, Currencies & Cryptocurrencies

Currency markets are noting a broad weakening of major Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar. Due to heavy pressure from U.S. Treasury yields, the Thai baht is under particular strain (the Bank of Thailand is maintaining its benchmark rate at 1%).

• Energy Market: Markets are signaling the prospect of a short-term oil oversupply, especially given that tankers are returning to standard crossings of the Strait of Hormuz without additional risk.
• Cryptocurrencies: It was a dramatic morning for the crypto sector. Bitcoin plunged below the key $60,000 support level, triggering a wave of massive long position liquidations on derivatives exchanges amounting to over $1 billion.
• Gold as a Safe Haven: Meanwhile, TD Securities analysts indicate that the "textbook" appeal of gold is returning. While broader equity markets struggle with valuations, precious metals provide the strongest investment buffer.

Market Outlook For Today

• Inflation Paradigm Shift: The sharp drop in crude oil prices strongly supports investor optimism. Significantly lower energy costs directly impact the inflation debate—this is a positive signal for consumers, corporate margins, and central banks looking for a pretext to cut interest rates.
• Declining Tension (VIX): The VIX index (the so-called fear gauge) falling by over 0.5% suggests that market participants are shedding their risk aversion overhang, betting—at least for today—on repurchasing discounted tech stocks.
• Currency Levels (FX): Options traders on the EUR/USD pair will be closely watching the 1.1500 and 1.1300 levels in the coming hours, where massive option expiries roll off today (around the New York close).

Information Sources

• Trading Economics / NYSE: Intraday quotes for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and the VIX volatility index.
• Tickmill: Market publication "Daily Market Outlook, June 25, 2026" (data on commodity markets, oil, defense contracts, and expiring FX options).
• TradingKey (with analysis from MUFG, NewsBTC, and The Motley Fool): Global currency markets (Asia FX), cryptocurrency quotes, corporate news regarding Salesforce.