Tuesday Premarket Edition — August 11, 2026
Every market figure below is the 08:00:00 AM ET one-minute bar, single feed, single pass
Futures Firm, Crude Flat Near $88 as Hormuz Impasse Holds; September Hike Odds a Coin Flip Ahead of CPI
Wall Street opens after Monday's modest pullback from Friday's records. Futures were firmer across the board at 8:00, with the Nasdaq-100 leading, while crude sat essentially unchanged from Monday's settle. Investors weigh hardening U.S.–Iran positions against Wednesday's July CPI. Soft July payrolls initially cooled hike expectations; oil-driven inflation risk has since pushed September odds back to roughly 50/50 under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Monday's session, covered in our previous edition, set the tone: energy led, technology lagged, and the reflation trade quietly reasserted itself.
Indices, Rates, Commodities
| Asset | Prior Close | 08:00:00 ET | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (cash) | 7,753.11 | ES ES=F 7,788.50 | +11.75 (+0.15%) |
| Nasdaq Composite (cash) | 26,605.36 | n/i | — |
| Nasdaq-100 (cash) | 29,621.81 | NQ NQ=F 29,824.75 | +87.75 (+0.30%) |
| Dow (cash) | 53,975.98 | YM YM=F 54,120.00 | +57.00 (+0.11%) |
| Russell 2000 (cash) | 3,017.40 | RTY RTY=F 3,031.90 | +6.90 (+0.23%) |
| VIX | 15.46 | 15.45 | −0.01 (−0.06%) |
10-yr T-Note ZN=F | 108.375 | 108.297 | −0.078 (−0.07%) |
WTI CL=F | 82.13 | 82.32 | +0.19 (+0.23%) |
Brent BZ=F | 87.72 | 87.76 | +0.04 (+0.05%) |
Gold GC=F | 4,419.70 | 4,444.10 | +24.40 (+0.55%) |
| Bitcoin | 63,912.50 | 64,337.08 | +424.58 (+0.66%) |
| DAX | 26,323.88 | 26,364.51 | +40.63 (+0.15%) |
| FTSE 100 | 10,862.50 | 10,866.63 | +4.13 (+0.04%) |
| WIG20 | 4,024.05 — record close | 4,059.92 | +35.87 (+0.89%) |
| WIG | 152,704.05 | 153,788.91 | +1,084.86 (+0.71%) |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,970.22 (+2.08%) | closed — Mountain Day | — |
| Hang Seng | 25,937.49 | closed — session ended before 8:00 ET | — |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,940.04 | closed — session ended before 8:00 ET | — |
n/i no futures contract exists on the Nasdaq Composite · closed exchange not trading at 08:00 ET
Index rows show the cash close against the corresponding front-month future; the percentage is measured against the future's own prior settle (ES 7,776.75 · NQ 29,737.00 · YM 54,063.00 · RTY 3,025.00). Rates are shown as the 10-year note future because the CBOE yield index prints no extended-hours bar. Brent's full Tuesday range was 87.15–90.03, so quotes taken later in the morning ran materially above the 8:00 print.
Ticker Board — 08:00:00 ET
| Ticker | Prior Close | 08:00:00 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | $19.40 | $22.24 | +$2.84 (+14.62%) |
| ASTS | $68.76 | $70.63 | +$1.87 (+2.72%) |
| SMCI | $31.46 | $32.18 | +$0.72 (+2.29%) |
| NVDA | $217.55 | $219.85 | +$2.30 (+1.06%) |
| MU | $861.00 | $867.80 | +$6.80 (+0.79%) |
| AMD | $469.56 | $473.00 | +$3.44 (+0.73%) |
| TSLA | $330.88 | $332.83 | +$1.95 (+0.59%) |
| CRWV | $88.19 | $88.70 | +$0.51 (+0.57%) |
| AVGO | $422.40 | $424.43 | +$2.03 (+0.48%) |
| META | $594.92 | $597.00 | +$2.08 (+0.35%) |
| AAPL | $308.26 | $309.19 | +$0.93 (+0.30%) |
| AMZN | $278.09 | $277.95 | −$0.14 (−0.05%) |
| GOOGL | $357.52 | $356.90 | −$0.62 (−0.17%) |
| MSFT | $506.06 | $504.97 | −$1.09 (−0.22%) |
| SPCX | $138.74 | $137.35 | −$1.39 (−1.00%) |
| PLTR | $175.23 | $173.39 | −$1.84 (−1.05%) |
| INTC | $97.52 | $96.37 | −$1.15 (−1.18%) |
| RKLB | $80.04 | $76.65 | −$3.39 (−4.24%) |
Semiconductors led the bid — NVDA, MU, AMD and AVGO all firmer after Monday's selloff — while software and platform names leaked. INTC and PLTR were the weakest large caps on the board.
Pre-Market Movers
RIOT — up 14.6% at 8:00 on reports of a $9.1B compute-supply deal with Anthropic. Earlier wire coverage put the move above 20%; the gain had already compressed by the 8:00 print.
RKLB — down 4.2% after Q2 results, despite a revenue beat. Also well off the 9% decline quoted in early-morning coverage.
ASTS — up 2.7%, not extending the post-earnings selloff described in pre-dawn wires. The stock had turned by 8:00.
INTC — the offering was priced at $95 a share and upsized to $20B, closing 12 August, with net proceeds of about $19.7B — roughly a 2.5% discount to Monday's $97.52 close. The stock traded $96.37 at 8:00, between the pricing level and Monday's close.
CRWV, SMCI — both firmer into earnings after the bell today, SMCI up 2.3%.
Technology
Monday: energy led, technology lagged. NVDA and AAPL led the declines, Nvidia falling after announcing a partnership with six financial firms on a roughly $500B AI-infrastructure funding package. MSFT and AMZN each gained over 1%. INTC fell 4.06% on the $15B offering, and semiconductors were broadly softer — AMD −2.86%, MU −1.89%, AVGO −1.25%. PLTR held its post-Q2 momentum, up 1.87%.
By Tuesday morning that had cleanly reversed: the chip complex was bid while PLTR gave back 1.05% and MSFT slipped. The dispersion inside the AI complex is now wide enough that index-level exposure tells you very little about what you actually own — a point we develop in Beyond the Mega-Caps.
Geopolitics & Macro
United States. Trump rebuked Iran's reparations demand, said he would let economic pressure build rather than strike, and told Axios the U.S. is "only semi-negotiating." Foreign Minister Araghchi said there is no possibility of restarting negotiations under current conditions; Tehran maintains Hormuz will not normalise until the blockade, sanctions and asset freezes are lifted. Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery, and an ADNOC-operated tanker was attacked in the strait.
Rates. July payrolls fell 23,000, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with downward revisions to the prior two months. September odds are now roughly 50/50 on CME FedWatch, against about 67% for a hike one week ago. The 29 July hold was a 9–3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan pushing for 25bp. The fed funds target remains 3.50–3.75%. July CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30 ET, PPI on Thursday.
United Kingdom. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July in a 6–3 vote, its fifth hold this year.
Japan. Tokyo was closed Tuesday for Mountain Day. Monday's session was the reference: the Nikkei rose 2.08% to 66,970.22, its highest close since 15 July, led by Advantest and Tokyo Electron.
Poland. WIG20 closed Monday at a record 4,024.05, led by Budimex and Dino. By 8:00 ET Tuesday it stood at 4,059.92, up 0.89% and well into fresh all-time-high territory, with WIG at 153,788.91. Orlen was the session's main driver, up over 2% — the clearest local transmission yet from the crude complex into the blue-chip index.
Outlook
Futures pointed to a firmer open, with the Nasdaq-100 leading and crude essentially unchanged from Monday's settle at the 8:00 mark — a calmer picture than the intraday swings that followed. The repricing has already happened in rates: September is a coin flip despite a contracting payroll print, and gold near a two-month high suggests the hedge is being bought rather than sold. The session hinges on the CPI print, a workable Hormuz path, and absorption of successive SpaceX unlocks.
For readers running systematic exposure into event risk of this kind, our notes on risk management in futures and what quantitative models can and cannot price are the relevant background. Prior editions are collected in the news archive, and longer-form pieces in the article library.
Methodology
Every price in this edition is the 08:00:00 AM ET one-minute bar from Yahoo Finance extended-hours data, pulled in a single pass. One venue, one timestamp, no blending across publishers. Prior closes are the matching prior-session settles from the same feed.
Three items carry no 8:00 print and are labelled in-table: the Nasdaq Composite has no futures contract, and the Tokyo, Hong Kong and Shanghai sessions had all ended before 08:00 ET. The CBOE 10-year yield index prints no extended-hours bar, so rates are shown as the 10-year note future instead.
Non-price context — payrolls, the FOMC vote, the Bank of England decision, the Intel offering terms and the Iran narrative — is sourced from BLS, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, CNBC, CME and Reuters.
Prior closes are as of Monday 10 August. All pre-market prices are timestamped 08:00:00 ET Tuesday 11 August; nothing after the 9:30 ET open is in scope.
*Not investment advice.*
